Mets Today

Mets 7 Braves 3

The best plan when you don’t have a closer? Score enough runs that it doesn’t matter who pitches the ninth inning.

After learning that Billy Wagner’s elbow was still swollen and would remain out of action indefinitely, the Mets took pressure off the bullpen in the late innings by exploding for five runs in the eighth, trouncing the Braves by a four-run margin.

But it was a much closer game for the first seven innings.

Oliver Perez pitched the first six and a third, allowing only three runs on seven hits and an alarming five walks. After 114 pitches, Ollie was replaced by latest acquisition Luis Ayala, who retired the two batters he faced to close out the seventh. Aaron Heilman came on in the eighth to keep the Mets in the game, and pitched a scoreless, though grueling frame.

The turning point of the game came in the bottom of the eighth. After Jose Reyes grounded out to lead off the inning, Nick Evans and David Wright drew back-to-back walks, setting the stage for Carlos Beltran to be a hero. Beltran responded by mashing two threads of the baseball, bouncing a dribbler toward Chipper Jones for an ugly but effective infield hit to load the bases. Carlos Delgado followed with a clutch laser beam to the left-center wall to chase home the tying and go-ahead runs.

After Delgado’s double, the game really opened up. Eventually, Jose Reyes came to the plate for a second time — at which point the Mets had scored five runs and the Braves went through three pitchers since the last time he took his place in the batter’s box.

Scott Schoeneweis came on in the ninth in a non-save situation and pitched a pressure-free, scoreless inning to finish the game.

Notes

Nick Evans went 2-for-3 with a walk, and has boosted his average to a respectable .276. He had the only Mets hit from innings one through seven. Carlos Beltran was the only other Met with more than one hit — he also collected two singles.

David Wright had a walk and a sac fly but no hits, so his 12-game hitting streak came to a close.

First impression of Luis Ayala: he is definitely not the guy I remember before Tommy John surgery. I’m not sure if the Mets already adjusted his arm angle, but the way it looks now is ugly. His elbow is too low and his hand is too much to the side and/or under the ball at release, causing all of his pitches to be up in the zone. He got away with it in this game, but unless he changes his release to get more downward movement on the ball, I expect to see opposing batters hit him hard.

Next Game

Mets and Braves do it again at 7:10 pm on Wednesday night, with Mike Pelfrey facing Jair Jurrjens.

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Following up last week’s article on the Mets’ bullpen, today we compare the relief workloads of the top contending teams in the NL.

Stats are through 120 games, give or take, and are not up to today — this took a while to put together. What we’re looking at below are the combined innings of the top six most-frequently used relievers for each team.

Bullpen Comparison: Top Six

As you can see, the top six relievers for the Phillies and the Mets have logged far more innings than the top six relievers of other top teams. Take note of the percentages — which is the total innings of the top six relievers divided by the team’s total relief innings.

The numbers above for the Phillies and Mets look really scary when we introduce this next set, which shows the percentage of workload for the top SEVEN relievers for each team.

Bullpen Comparison: Top Seven

It’s no surprise that the Phillies and Mets remain at the top. What’s alarming is half the other contenders have been using SEVEN relievers to shoulder the same — or lesser — load than the Mets and Phillies have put on SIX. And the other two teams, the Dodgers and Marlins, have put a load on seven relievers that is only a few percentage points over the Mets’ group of six.

In other words, it should be absolutely no surprise that the Mets bullpen is pitching poorly — their main relievers are worn out. Granted, the Phillies are pushing their top six harder than anyone, and they’re still sporting the second-best ERA among bullpens in the NL. However, I will be surprised if they keep it up through the last month and a half of the season — though, they’ve already added fresh arms for the stretch run. Those arms were needed, as Tom Gordon is on the DL, and Rudy Seanez has 16.88 ERA since the All-Star Break.

Why can’t the Mets expect their relievers to pitch at the same level of effectiveness as the Phillies, when the Phillies appear to have a harder workload? A few reasons. The main one is Duaner Sanchez, who has been asked to be a big-time setup man and log significant innings after not pitching for a year and a half. He might look like he’s in shape, but Duaner’s recent loss of velocity suggests that his arm and legs were not ready for the load of a 162-game season. When you are counting on only six pitchers to handle the bulk of the load, and one of them isn’t physically up to the task, the entire group suffers.

Secondly, we must take into consideration the frequency with which the top six pitchers are being used — or more to the point, the top five. To date, the Mets have three pitchers with at least 60 appearances, with a fourth only three games away. The Phillies have used one pitcher for 60 games (61 actually) — J.C. Romero. The Phillies top five most-used relievers, in fact, have appeared in a combined 264 ballgames. In contrast, the Mets’ five-man corps of Pedro Feliciano (66), Aaron Heilman (65), Joe Smith (62), Scott Schoeneweis (57), and Sanchez (54) totals 304. So although they haven’t logged the same percentage of innings, the Mets’ main middle / setup relievers have been used far more frequently.

There’s nothing that can be done about the past four and a half months of abuse — what’s done is done. You have to move forward and find a way to bolster the bullpen with fresh arms — which is what makes the Mets’ most recent moves so curious. First, they promote Eddie Kunz, and then give him the Aaron Sele treatment. Maybe they were concerned about Kunz’s workload in his first pro season. In any case, his presence did nothing to alleviate the workload on the “main five”. Their next move was to demote Kunz and acquire Luis Ayala. Let’s forget the fact I don’t love the move, and consider that Ayala is in his first full season after Tommy John surgery, and his 62 appearances have him tied with Smith for 8th in the league. In other words, they’ve added another arm that may be worn out!

The Mets’ scouts recommended Ayala based on his velocity, and suggested that he would benefit from a changes in scenery and arm angle. The latter I cannot argue, but the former I will take issue with — based on the fact that Heilman, Feliciano, and Smith are all at their typical velocity yet still pitching poorly. A dropoff in velocity is indeed an obvious indicator of fatigue — such as in the case of Sanchez — but sustained velocity is not necessarily an indication of health. Pitchers can take pain killers or cortisone shots, alter their mechanics, or rely on adrenalin in order to keep their top velocity as a short-term solution.

Bottom line? We likely won’t need to worry about another September collapse by the Mets bullpen — it’s happening now. With the announcement of Billy Wagner’s elbow issue compounding the problem, the Mets absolutely must add new, fresh arms to their bullpen as soon as possible. Converting John Maine — who is already having shoulder problems — is not a very good idea in my opinion. Instead, the Mets need to acquire another free agent and/or reach down to the farm and promote pitchers who are not worn out — and USE THEM.

Kip Wells would have been a nice idea, but he was just picked up by the Royals (who apparently don’t realize they’re out of the race). Yes, Wells stinks but his arm is fairly fresh, and he’s pitched well out of the bullpen. Maybe there are other arms out there like Wells — starters with something left in the tank, who might transition to the ‘pen. The Mets are trying it with Brian Stokes, and may have to turn to Bobby Parnell and/or Jon Niese next. Any other ideas? Post them below.

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Pirates 5 Mets 2

Well, three out of four ain’t bad.

The Mets fell just short of a sweep in Pittsburgh, as the Mets bullpen let another one get away. John Maine started and gritted through five difficult innings without allowing a run. He expended 96 pitches, giving up two hits, walking four, and striking out three. More on him later.

The Mets gave Johnny a two-run advantage by scratching out runs in the first and the fourth. However, it was not enough offense to balance the weakness of the bullpen, which allowed five runs in the last four innings.

The first culprit was Brian Stokes, who after coming off two stellar appearances, gave up a two-run dinger to Adam LaRoche to ruin his reputation among the Shea faithful. Scott Schoeneweis held the 2-2 tie through two-thirds of an inning, but Pedro Feliciano allowed a hit in the seventh and therefore had to be removed from the game. His replacement, Duaner Sanchez, did a lovely job of mucking up the game. Sanchez gave up a single, an intentional walk, a single, and a double before he was mercifully replaced by Joe Smith. By the time the smoke cleared, the Bucs were up 5-2, establishing the final score of the game.

The Mets had a few chances to score during the game, but their advances turned out to be empty threats. They left eight men on base during the game, though it felt like twice that.

Notes

The Mets managed only six hits, but walked seven times.

Damion Easley played a respectable game at shortstop in place of Jose Reyes, who was given a wellllllllllllll deserved day off. Unfortunately for my favorite Met, he bounced into both of the double plays turned by the Buccos.

John Maine did not look good. At all. The fact he escaped without allowing a run is remarkable, but more shocking is that he left the game without re-injuring himself. His velocity was down, his location was terrible, his release point was all over the place, and he’s continuing to carry the ball behind him in before breaking his hands during the delivery. In conclusion — I see the exact same mechanical flaws from John Maine that he suffered from before the shoulder injury, and as such I do not expect him to return to form this season. Further, I’m extremely concerned for his long-term health, because if he continues to pitch through the pain and with these mechanical issues, he will further damage his rotator cuff. Unlike Tommy John surgery for the elbow, there is no “magic cure” for the rotator, and very few pitchers come back from it with any level of success.

Next Game

The Mets return home for a three-game series hosting the Atlanta Braves. First pitch on Tuesday is scheduled for 7:10 pm, with Oliver Perez taking the hill against Jo-Jo Reyes.

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The most recent Omar Minaya acquisition caused me to do some research.

The following players were member of the 2003 and/or 2004 Expos (when Omar Minaya was GM):

Brian Schneider
Endy Chavez
Fernando Tatis
Claudio Vargas
Tony Armas, Jr.
Luis Ayala
Ryan Church
Val Pascucci

For future reference, here is a random selection of others who were Expos in 2003-2004:

Vladimir Guerrero
Javier Vazquez
Orlando Cabrera
Jon Rauch
Macier Izturis
Livan Hernandez
Nick Johnson
Brad Wilkerson
Michael Barrett
Roy Corcoran
Jamey Carroll
Juan Rivera
Jose Vidro
Chad Cordero
Gary Majewski

FYI, the Expos were 150-174 over those two seasons.

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Mets 4 Pirates 0

One more and the Mets will complete a sweep in Pittsburgh.

Johan Santana was spectacular, never struggling in a 9-inning complete-game shutout. Johan gave up three hits, no walks, no runs, and struck out 7 in a textbook, 113-pitch performance.

He only needed one, but the Mets gave him four. Hot-hitting Brian “Sluggo” Schneider gave the Mets an early lead with a two-run homer in the second. Schneider singled in another run in the fourth, and Carlos Beltran blasted a solo shot in the sixth to close out the scoring for the day.

Notes

Argenis Reyes went 3-for-4, notably relaxed with the exit of Anderson Hernandez from the organization. OK, maybe AHern’s trade to the Nats had no effect. Reyes has, however, been proving me wrong since I doubted the logic of placing him at the top of the order. He’s boosted his OBP to .316 with his recent hot streak (though he’s still not taking many walks).

David Wright got a well-deserved day off, and hardly anyone noticed. Damion Easley took his place in the infield and — strangley — in the third spot of the lineup.

Maybe Jose Reyes needed a rest, too. Jose made his 14th error of the season on a ground ball, dropped a throw from Carlos Delgado, and was nearly picked off second base in the top of the ninth. Perhaps he’ll rest on Monday, and Damion Easley will play short and lead off.

Next Game

The Mets bring the broom on Monday in a 12:35 pm start. John Maine goes to the mound against Paul Maholm.

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That’s right — the Mets have chosen to “bolster” their bullpen with a man sporting a 5.77 ERA.

Good luck with that.

The Mets traded Anderson Hernandez to the Nationals for Ayala, who in 62 games and 57 innings this season has allowed 63 hits, 22 walks, and struck out 36. He has a 1-8 record, no saves, 4 blown saves, and 19 holds. Bright spot: he’s allowed just 6 homeruns in those 57 frames, so one every nine or ten innings.

So why did the Mets give up someone with a pulse for this train wreck?

First is the fact that Ayala stinks. His numbers are similar to those of Guillermo Mota’s 2007 — minus the high strikeout totals. Would you trade AHern for Mota?

Second, Ayala is seventh in the NL in appearances with 62. We’ve established that the Mets bullpen is exhausted — why in the world would Omar Minaya acquire another worn-out arm?

The reasoning the trade must be this: Ayala was really good a few years ago, and is a “Minaya guy”. He started out in the Arizona Diamondbacks organization, but was plucked by Minaya in the Rule 5 draft prior to the 2003 season. It turned out to be a genius move, as he went 10-3 with a 2.92 ERA as a rookie for the Expos. Ayala sported a svelte 2.69 ERA in 81 games under Minaya’s watch in 2004 as well.

Problem is, those years of glory came when Ayala was young and strong — his best years came during ages 25, 26, and 27 (no surprise there). As you might have remembered, Ayala blew out his elbow during the World Baseball Classic, and underwent Tommy John surgery, ending his 2006 season. He missed the first two months of last year while continuing to rehab, before returning and pitching fairly well — 3.19 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 28 Ks and only 12 BB in 42 IP.

This year, Ayala has been awful, and getting worse as the season wears on — he has a 6.97 ERA since the All-Star Break.

Hold on to your seats, friends. We may soon be reading about the acquisitions of Sammy Sosa, Wil Cordero, Tomo Ohka, and Sunny Kim as Minaya stubbornly attempts to re-create past history.

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Prior to Saturday night’s game, it was reported that Billy Wagner complained of elbow discomfort after a 20-pitch bullpen session.

Those who follow MetsToday and pay attention should not be surprised, since I stated in the notes of Game 111 postgame analysis:

As if the bullpen weren’t bad enough, Billy Wagner has “tightness in his elbow” and was unavailable for the contest. My many years of being around pitchers tells me that he could be on the verge of an elbow issue — likely some form of tendinitis, such as epicondylitis (a.k.a., tennis elbow).

Not good news for the Mets.

Funny, ain’t it, that a know-nothing hack blogger like me predicted both John Maine’s shoulder issue and Wagner’s elbow problem?

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Mets 7 Pirates 4

So far, the Mets are making the most of the “soft” part of their schedule.

Pedro Martinez threw seven strong innings in leading the Mets to their fifth straight victory, and his fourth win of the year. Petey allowed only one run in a 95-pitch effort, scattering eight hits, walking one, and striking out four.

While Martinez was mowing down the Bucs, the bats were battering starter and loser Zach Duke. Jose Reyes led off the game with a homerun, then tripled and scored in the second as the Mets jumped out to a four-nothing lead. They tacked on another two in the sixth on a two-run blast by Ramon Castro, and closed their effort when Daniel Murphy forced home a run with a bases-loaded walk in the eighth.

However, the game wasn’t exactly in the bag.

Leading 7-1 going into the ninth, Mets manager Jerry Manuel finally had what he believed was the exact, perfect situation to use the well-rested Eddie Kunz. Kunz responded by allowing two singles and a double, hitting a batter, and uncorking a wild pitch with a man on third. By the time he was removed, the Pirates had pulled to within three, setting up a save situation for Joe Smith.

But Smith gave up a single, so Manuel had to replace him with Pedro Feliciano, who induced a flyout and a grounder to end the game and earn the save.

Notes

Brian Stokes pitched a scoreless eighth in his first setup situation. It’s only a matter of hours before every shortsighted fan and pundit start hailing him as the Mets’ bullpen savior, and wondering aloud why he isn’t given save chances while Billy Wagner remains on the DL.

Carlos Beltran roped an RBI double and Fernando Tatis singled him in for the other two runs scored in the first.

I wonder if Kunz was so awful because he hadn’t pitched in six days? Hmm … reminds me a LOT of how another manager used to handle Aaron Sele (among others). Since Kunz relies on a heavy sinker and control, it was no surprise he crapped the bed. You can’t just bury a guy for a week and expect him to be sharp — just like you can’t expect a guy to pitch 5 days out of seven and not get worn out. It’s called “bullpen management”, and it’s a delicate balance.

Speaking of the bullpen, I will continue to harp on my brilliant strategy of scoring lots of runs while Wags is out, to provide enough cushion at the end of the game so that it doesn’t matter who is pitching the final two innings.

Next Game

The Mets go for six in a row when they face the Buccos at 1:35 pm on Sunday afternoon. Johan Santana faces the surprising Jeff Karstens.

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Mets 2 Pirates 1

A slim margin of victory, but a victory nonetheless.

Mike Pelfrey had to be nearly perfect, and he was, pitching seven spectacular innings of shutout ball before giving way to the bullpen. Big Pelf allowed 7 hits and no walks, striking out one and inducing 14 ground balls.

However, he didn’t get his usual outpouring of support. The Mets managed only two runs against starter Jason Davis, who also went seven innings and allowed just six hits and three walks. All the Mets’ scoring came in the first frame, when it looked like it was going to be another blowout. The non-brothers Reyes led off the game with back-to-back singles, with Jose scoring on a David Wright single and Argenis plating on a wild pitch. But that was all the scoring to be seen, until the eighth, when Bucs batter Jack Wilson hit a solo homer against setup man Duaner Sanchez. It was Wilson’s first four-bagger since Babe Ruth League, so Sanchez was not trusted beyond pinch-hitter Chris Gomez, who grounded out.

Pedro Feliciano finished the eighth, and Aaron Heilman earned his third save by pitching a scoreless ninth.

Notes

Reyes & Reyes went a combined 4-for-9 at the top of the lineup. Despite Argenis’ two hits, I still don’t understand the logic behind batting him second, and Daniel Murphy sixth.

Murphy, by the way, continues to slump. He was retired three times and managed only one hit, and his average is now dangerously low — near the “Cobb Line” in fact. He’s making an out nearly six times for every ten at-bats.

Brian Schneider barely kept his hitting streak alive with a double in his last at-bat. Schneider’s streak was extended to two games.

So I imagine all the Heilman haters will retreat to the woodwork for 24 hours, though none of them will admit they “knew Aaron was going to blow another one”. A few probably will hang around the forums and blogs to let everyone know how badly Duaner stinks.

Next Game

Saturday night’s game is another 7:10 pm start. Pedro Martinez is scheduled to hurl against Zach Duke.

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After last year’s “collapse”, we did something rare here at MetsToday: a statistical analysis. Yes, even an old school guy like me will once in a while check the numbers (though it gives me a headache).

For those who weren’t here, or don’t remember, we took a hard look at the Mets’ 2007 bullpen, then compared it to those of other top teams in the NL. Go ahead and re-read those posts, so you understand what’s going on with relief pitching in MLB lately. If you don’t have the time, here’s the gist:

To reiterate, establishing specific people with bullpen roles and expecting them to fulfill those roles from game 1 through 162 is suicide. There are simply too many innings to cover over that span, which require at minimum 9-10 arms that can share the load. The teams that stockpile the highest-quality arms — and/or can squeeze the most innings out of their starters — will be less susceptible to breakdowns in the last weeks of the season.

So, what did the 2008 Mets management learn from last year?

Nothing.

Because here we are at game 122, and the Mets have 4 pitchers among the top 20 in the NL in appearances. No other team has more than 2. The “bullpen roles” concept was used by Willie Randolph last year, but everyone forgot that when current savior Jerry Manuel announced that everyone in the bullpen would have roles. Everyone also forgot what a BAD IDEA it is to have set roles in the bullpen — regardless of how the pitchers themselves feel about it.

Here is a breakdown of the bullpen staff:

Mets Relief 2008

Looking at the above, you can see that six pitchers have accounted for 303 of the team’s 381 relief innings — which comes to 80% of the workload. That’s alarming, considering that last season, only five teams had SEVEN pitchers account for that percentage of relief innings.

Maybe that didn’t come out clearly, so I’ll re-state it: Most teams don’t put that kind of workload on SEVEN pitchers, much less six.

This is easier to see if you refer back to this table from last year:

Bullpen Comparison: Top Seven

Forget anyone’s “theories” as to why the Mets bullpen is suddenly a train wreck; a simple look at the numbers makes it as plain as day: the relievers are grossly overworked. Yet we keep hearing nonsense from radio jockeys, bloggers, journalists, other pundits, and Jerry Manuel himself — no one can seem to understand why the relief corps is having so much trouble lately. It’s as if people think Heilman, Feliciano, Schoeneweis, Smith, and Sanchez are in some sort of unexplainable, mystical “slump”, or that they “stink”.

As much as the sabermetricians would like to believe that baseball is all about the numbers, there’s something called the human element that comes into play. And six human beings, without the advantage of HGH, steroids, or other PEDs, cannot pitch at a consistently high level under this stress.

To reiterate: the Mets NEEDED more arms to share the load. There needed to be more shuttling back and forth of guys like Claudio Vargas, Carlos Muniz, Brian Stokes, Willie Collazo, etc., to and from AAA, and USED when they were with the big club (it’s likely too late now to fix the situation). But since management remains enamored with this “bullpen roles” concept, we see the same five guys pitch every single game.

How they’ll make it through September remains to be seen.

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